Tue, Feb 26, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 116 | 014 | 236 |
| PHI | 219 | 111 | 215 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Konecny, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:52PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–2
- P1 12:08BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 15:13PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Robert Hagg, Radko Gudas · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 17:53BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 0:46PHITravis SanheimAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:05PHIClaude GirouxENAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:36BUFJohan Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:27PHIRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:27BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:27BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:39PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:43PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:10PHINolan Patrick: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:10BUFRasmus Ristolainen: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:12PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:39BUFJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P2 19:39PHIRyan Hartman: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Sobotka – Wilson3:59
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt7:35
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel10:42
xG 0.46–0.60 (44%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons10:45
xG 0.20–0.79 (20%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Montour2:46
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – McCabe2:30
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen9:51
xG 0.15–0.40 (28%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier2:22
xG 0.78–0.02 (98%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom9:25
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Raffl – Patrick2:08
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Konecny – Patrick6:16
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov15:05
xG 1.57–0.48 (77%)attempts 29–12goals 1–0
- Gudas – Hagg11:33
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gudas3:19
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).