Tue, Feb 26, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 1, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 06 | 17 | 123 |
| CAR | 27 | 413 | 014 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Saku Maenalanen · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:15CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 0:25CARMicheal FerlandAssists: Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 2:19CARJaccob SlavinPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Lucas Wallmark · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 14:01CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Micheal Ferland, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG0–5
- P2 14:41CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.07 xG0–6
- P3 12:02LAKDustin BrownAssists: Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.06 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:40LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:20CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:12LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:39LAKDerek Forbort: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:39CARSaku Maenalanen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:22LAKKyle Clifford: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:22CARDougie Hamilton: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Leipsic – Brodzinski – Kempe11:11
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Wagner9:59
xG 0.52–0.62 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Toffoli7:01
xG 0.06–0.48 (12%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo14:26
xG 0.73–1.46 (33%)attempts 10–27goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- LaDue – Walker15:16
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 12–24goals 0–2
- Phaneuf – Doughty3:32
xG 0.01–0.48 (2%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort18:15
xG 0.55–1.10 (33%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMaenalanen – Foegele – Wallmark8:33
xG 0.83–0.06 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Ferland – Teravainen7:33
xG 0.77–0.29 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 3–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Aho11:54
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov3:17
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin13:19
xG 1.24–0.57 (69%)attempts 21–8goals 3–1
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk12:24
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce3:38
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).