Tue, Feb 26, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 112 | 27 | 527 |
| CBJ | 05 | 211 | 07 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:22PITJared McCannAssists: Matt Cullen, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 1:15PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 4:55CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Scott Harrington · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 7:09CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Zach Werenski · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 13:27PITJared McCannAssists: Dominik Simon, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 19:55PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:56CBJScott Harrington: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:58PITChad Ruhwedel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47PITDominik Simon: Holding2 min
- P3 15:41PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P3 17:12CBJSeth Jones: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel16:02
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese14:36
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – McCann – Simon5:24
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Simon4:00
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson9:37
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Schultz – Pettersson3:11
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Trotman2:24
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDzingel – Bjorkstrand – Dubois3:06
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson13:21
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Dzingel – Bjorkstrand5:47
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois7:16
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Harrington8:34
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski17:47
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Savard – Werenski2:16
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).