Tue, Feb 26, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 8, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 512 | 212 | 834 |
| DET | 05 | 114 | 010 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16MTLTomas TatarAssists: Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 2:22MTLAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 11:19MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 13:48MTLMax DomiAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 16:09MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Paul Byron · Slap, 0.07 xG5–0
- P2 18:16DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Mike Green, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.30 xG5–1
- P2 19:17MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–1
- P3 2:42MTLMax DomiAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Christian Folin · Backhand, 0.12 xG7–1
- P3 17:27MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.12 xG8–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:30MTLPaul Byron: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:41MTLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:46MTLAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:59MTLBrett Kulak: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:59MTLBrett Kulak: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:59DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:59MTLBrett Kulak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:59DETDylan Larkin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:47MTLJoel Armia: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Drouin – Domi12:20
xG 1.02–0.36 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 5–0
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi10:27
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:23
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Thompson – Weise – Lehkonen8:50
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Folin15:24
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 17–13goals 3–0
- Weber – Mete10:28
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Benn11:39
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Mantha – Larkin11:52
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Nielsen – Glendening – Rasmussen9:37
xG 0.17–0.56 (23%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Zadina8:46
xG 0.20–0.67 (23%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Green11:24
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Ericsson – Hronek5:04
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek8:25
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).