Tue, Feb 26, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 0, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 04 | 05 | 019 |
| STL | 015 | 09 | 220 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:35STLTyler BozakGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 19:56STLAlex PietrangeloENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:08NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:30STLTyler Bozak: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:57STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:57NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:08STLColton Parayko: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:29NSHRyan Johansen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:56NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56NSHRoman Josi: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:04
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McLeod – Grimaldi – Gaudreau5:56
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Bonino – Sissons6:09
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Turris – Simmonds – Jarnkrok8:00
xG 0.14–0.80 (15%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Irwin8:20
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:12
xG 0.64–1.14 (36%)attempts 19–25goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm15:27
xG 0.07–0.92 (7%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:05
xG 1.08–0.43 (71%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Thomas9:02
xG 0.70–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais8:08
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Fabbri9:36
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson15:50
xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko13:47
xG 1.02–0.46 (69%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn8:41
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).