Tue, Feb 26, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Dallas Stars 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 09 | 01 | 124 |
| VGK | 014 | 113 | 321 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 11:48VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 14:52VGKMax PaciorettyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 17:58VGKNate SchmidtENAssists: Deryk Engelland, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
- P3 18:59VGKBrayden McNabbENAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:09DALRadek Faksa: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:09VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:09VGKJonathan Marchessault: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:04DALJason Dickinson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:56VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:52DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:15DALBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Seguin – Hintz14:08
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark6:14
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Nichushkin4:29
xG 0.22–0.29 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Gurianov2:55
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Heiskanen4:06
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen13:15
xG 0.14–0.55 (21%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Oleksiak11:40
xG 0.14–0.62 (18%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone13:04
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek8:05
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch9:02
xG 0.57–0.15 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:05
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller14:22
xG 1.17–0.25 (82%)attempts 26–8goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt17:52
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:47
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).