Wed, Feb 27, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 015 | 215 | 05 | 235 |
| NJD | 05 | 15 | 010 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:07CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 13:52CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 16:47NJDKevin RooneySHUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:03NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:34NJDBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:57NJDBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:54NJDBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:42CGYOscar Fantenberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:36CGYAustin Czarnik: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00CGYTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00NJDBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan5:58
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk6:31
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Mangiapane2:04
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik3:14
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:46
xG 0.98–0.70 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Andersson – Fantenberg11:48
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:48
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPietila – Bastian – McLeod7:20
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Zajac – Agostino9:29
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Coleman – Lappin – Hischier12:42
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Mueller6:46
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Yakovlev2:59
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher2:03
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).