Wed, Feb 27, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 012 | 19 | 03 | 1 | 232 |
| COL | 217 | 012 | 012 | 04 | 2 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:13VANAntoine RousselAssists: Alex Biega, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 18:26COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:58VANJosh LeivoAssists: Ryan Spooner, Alex Biega · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. VAN Brock Boeser scored
- 4. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 5. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
- 6. COL Mikko Rantanen scored
- 7. VAN Nikolay Goldobin stopped
- 8. COL J.T. Compher stopped
- 9. VAN Markus Granlund stopped
- 10. COL Derick Brassard stopped
- 11. VAN Ryan Spooner stopped
- 12. COL Carl Soderberg scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:11COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:45VANAshton Sautner: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:42COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:01COLColin Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:17VANJay Beagle: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:27VANBen Hutton: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:11COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:47COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:45VANTanner Pearson: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:45COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSpooner – Leivo – Horvat6:41
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Goldobin – Boeser – Pettersson3:59
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Leivo – Horvat2:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Leivo – Horvat – Goldobin2:01
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Hutton4:10
xG 0.26–0.16 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Biega – Pouliot13:26
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Schenn – Sautner6:59
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:15
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:36
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Brassard – Compher8:09
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov12:00
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Barrie – Graves6:03
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov2:53
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).