Thu, Feb 28, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 014 | 08 | 135 |
| NYI | 110 | 315 | 212 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:33TORZach HymanAssists: Mitch Marner, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 16:16NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:49NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 13:40NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 19:00NYIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Andrew Ladd, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–4
- P3 0:33NYINick LeddyAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Martin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 8:41NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:54TORAuston Matthews: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:54NYIValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:48NYILeo Komarov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner12:36
xG 0.88–0.21 (81%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Ennis – Nylander – Moore3:12
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Brown – Matthews3:02
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – Gauthier – Moore6:53
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Zaitsev13:39
xG 0.34–0.42 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Rielly16:44
xG 0.72–1.39 (34%)attempts 11–26goals 1–1
- Marincin – Holl14:16
xG 0.61–1.31 (32%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson12:42
xG 1.23–0.30 (81%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:28
xG 0.71–0.39 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Filppula – Ladd – Komarov8:48
xG 0.65–0.88 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:43
xG 0.49–0.87 (36%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:27
xG 1.33–0.40 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Toews17:02
xG 1.34–0.65 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:29
xG 0.23–1.53 (13%)attempts 6–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).