Thu, Feb 28, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 210 | 06 | 113 | 02 | 331 |
| CBJ | 114 | 110 | 114 | 12 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:45CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Boone Jenner, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:00PHITravis SanheimAssists: Travis Konecny, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 7:31CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Zach Werenski, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 4:15CBJScott HarringtonAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 13:12PHITravis SanheimAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 4:27CBJSeth JonesGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:20CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:45PHIBrian Elliott: Delaying game2 min
- P1 13:48PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:26PHIRyan Hartman: Charging2 min
- P2 8:58CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Konecny – Patrick9:29
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier4:42
xG 0.16–0.04 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Knight – Varone – Raffl3:35
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Raffl2:59
xG 0.07–0.06 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov18:36
xG 1.45–0.73 (67%)attempts 25–23goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Myers13:18
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Gudas – Hagg14:19
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois9:02
xG 0.81–0.18 (82%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson10:24
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Duchene – Bjorkstrand – Panarin3:27
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Robinson9:31
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Jones13:01
xG 0.57–0.13 (82%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Savard – Werenski12:56
xG 0.86–0.43 (66%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Savard – Nutivaara5:00
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).