Thu, Feb 28, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 29 | 28 | 426 |
| OTT | 113 | 09 | 115 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:59OTTChris TierneyAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:47EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Josh Currie · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 17:21EDMSam GagnerAssists: Ty Rattie, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 1:46EDMColby CaveGWGAssists: Josh Currie · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 7:15OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Christian Jaros, Colin White · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:53EDMZack KassianENAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 10:02OTTChristian Jaros: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:49OTTMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min
- P3 14:51EDMAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:31OTTColin White: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:53OTTChris Tierney: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Cave – Currie5:42
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid8:44
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Lucic – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins3:05
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Rieder – Cave – Currie3:18
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse17:21
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning12:29
xG 0.71–0.84 (46%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Larsson – Klefbom16:51
xG 0.24–1.29 (16%)attempts 6–24goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duclair – White12:24
xG 1.21–0.18 (87%)attempts 24–5goals 1–1
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau13:00
xG 0.58–0.09 (87%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Tkachuk11:04
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Boedker – Lindberg – Gibbons7:39
xG 0.37–0.64 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Jaros9:12
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Ceci – Harpur14:16
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot18:11
xG 0.89–0.72 (55%)attempts 20–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).