Fri, Mar 1, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 218 | 27 | 436 |
| NYR | 19 | 012 | 19 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41NYRVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Brady Skjei, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:27MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jordie Benn · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:38MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Christian Folin, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 4:29MTLJoel ArmiaGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 17:28NYRBrendan LemieuxAssists: Jesper Fast, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:23MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Paul Byron, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:08MTLChristian Folin: Interference2 min
- P1 8:08NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:34NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P2 1:22MTLJordie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:04NYRLibor Hajek: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:26MTLJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P3 19:23NYRBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:26
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Thompson – Weise – Lehkonen8:48
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi11:55
xG 0.42–0.74 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi8:43
xG 0.34–0.91 (27%)attempts 3–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete16:06
xG 0.96–0.46 (68%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Kulak – Folin15:07
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Petry – Benn13:49
xG 0.56–1.40 (29%)attempts 8–20goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Namestnikov7:40
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Buchnevich – Lemieux – Andersson6:32
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey12:38
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei9:45
xG 1.16–0.35 (77%)attempts 16–4goals 2–2
- Hajek – Pionk6:29
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo2:02
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).