Fri, Mar 1, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
St. Louis Blues 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 13 | 09 | 223 |
| CAR | 28 | 17 | 29 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Vince Dunn, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 7:40CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Brett Pesce, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:44CARJustin FaulkAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 2:13STLVince DunnAssists: Patrick Maroon, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 13:03CARSebastian AhoSHGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 10:44CARJordan StaalAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:59CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:28STLJaden Schwartz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:30CARSaku Maenalanen: Holding2 min
- P2 11:47CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 13:24STLVince Dunn: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:50STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:50CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:50STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:50CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:21CARWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:32
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Thomas9:05
xG 0.16–0.17 (50%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- MacEachern – Sanford – Barbashev9:51
xG 0.13–0.32 (28%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Steen – Bozak – Fabbri11:33
xG 0.33–1.23 (21%)attempts 9–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn3:54
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Dunn8:36
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson5:29
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho11:16
xG 0.96–0.37 (72%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Staal – Ferland – Teravainen12:07
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele7:50
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov10:08
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin16:42
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Faulk – Pesce18:05
xG 0.77–0.49 (61%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury12:11
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).