Fri, Mar 1, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 3, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 111 | 117 | 338 |
| WPG | 011 | 215 | 36 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:21NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 12:12NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 15:48WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:21WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 14:09WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:14WPGTyler MyersENGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.68 xG2–4
- P3 19:00NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:28WPGKevin HayesENAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:24NSHRocco Grimaldi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:26NSHKyle Turris: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:53NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:34WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:01WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:38NSHKyle Turris: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:35WPGAdam Lowry: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:29
xG 0.97–0.38 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Bonino – Simmonds – Grimaldi3:11
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Turris – Gaudreau2:22
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Sissons5:30
xG 0.01–0.01 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis14:33
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm16:09
xG 0.66–0.53 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Weber – Irwin8:21
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Ehlers – Connor10:31
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Perreault – Copp – Roslovic8:36
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Little – Lowry – Tanev9:39
xG 0.09–0.36 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine10:57
xG 0.27–1.00 (21%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Niku13:06
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Trouba16:08
xG 0.71–0.77 (48%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Myers – Kulikov13:44
xG 0.16–1.87 (8%)attempts 8–31goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).