Fri, Mar 1, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 114 | 19 | 111 | 334 |
| ANA | 010 | 012 | 012 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:49VGKWilliam KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 18:13VGKAlex TuchAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 19:39VGKCody EakinENAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:41VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:02ANAJakob Silfverberg: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 13:00VGKJon Merrill: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:43ANANick Ritchie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:18
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Bellemare8:09
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone14:50
xG 0.64–0.85 (43%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Pirri – Eakin – Tuch12:23
xG 0.76–1.29 (37%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Miller14:17
xG 0.80–0.82 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt18:16
xG 0.75–0.77 (49%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:31
xG 0.77–1.06 (42%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Henrique – Sprong9:57
xG 1.34–0.45 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore12:58
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kesler – Rowney – Ritchie9:34
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Grant – Terry – Jones10:43
xG 0.46–0.80 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Guhle19:16
xG 1.54–1.27 (55%)attempts 26–18goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm16:54
xG 0.71–0.48 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Holzer – Megna11:44
xG 0.57–0.41 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).