Sat, Mar 2, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 34 | 116 | 15 | 525 |
| MTL | 012 | 110 | 015 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:38PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 8:51PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 6:24PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 7:20MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 18:36PITJared McCannENAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:34MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:22PITJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:42PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:13MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P2 13:11MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P2 14:30PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – McCann10:09
xG 0.33–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese8:45
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Cullen – Wilson – Blueger7:59
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – Simon9:24
xG 0.04–0.48 (8%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Schultz17:49
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Trotman – Riikola11:17
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Pettersson13:26
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 8–16goals 2–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Weise – Lehkonen4:28
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:01
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi9:13
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi11:17
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete12:41
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 20–3goals 0–1
- Kulak – Folin12:47
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Petry – Benn13:58
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).