Sat, Mar 2, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 116 | 09 | 012 | 137 |
| TBL | 29 | 211 | 114 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:51TBLRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Erik Cernak, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 9:28OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Brian Gibbons, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:15TBLErik CernakAssists: Alex Killorn, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 15:27TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 1:59TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Braydon Coburn, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:43TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:42TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:06TBLNikita Kucherov: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 7:12OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:12TBLJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22TBLMathieu Joseph: Interference2 min
- P2 11:59OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:01OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:24OTTAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – White – Tkachuk7:36
xG 0.44–0.34 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 0–3
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau3:04
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Balcers9:24
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Smith – Paajarvi – Lindberg5:32
xG 0.01–0.18 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot15:25
xG 0.66–0.32 (68%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Ceci – Harpur12:15
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 13–19goals 1–2
- Borowiecki – Jaros11:38
xG 0.06–0.70 (8%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli8:50
xG 0.61–0.14 (82%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point10:27
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph8:55
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde9:33
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak13:58
xG 1.13–0.25 (82%)attempts 22–7goals 2–0
- Girardi – Hedman15:42
xG 0.71–0.69 (51%)attempts 20–21goals 2–1
- Coburn – Sergachev14:11
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).