Sat, Mar 2, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 27 | 09 | 19 | 11 | 426 |
| FLA | 212 | 09 | 111 | 02 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26CARBrock McGinnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 2:05CARGreg McKeggAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 5:01FLAHenrik BorgstromAssists: Dryden Hunt, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 11:50FLAMark PysykAssists: Jamie McGinn, Henrik Borgstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 5:32FLAHenrik BorgstromAssists: Jamie McGinn, Dryden Hunt · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 8:19CARBrett PesceAssists: Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 1:46CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:38CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 11:27FLAIan McCoshen: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:27CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:31CARSaku Maenalanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho15:44
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Ferland – Teravainen13:10
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov10:43
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Wallmark10:16
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fleury13:09
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Faulk – Pesce19:08
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin18:50
xG 0.68–0.79 (46%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Hunt – Borgstrom5:55
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 3–1
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Vatrano10:57
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Hawryluk12:23
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov14:15
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – McCoshen11:31
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Yandle – Pysyk18:44
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Matheson – Ekblad18:55
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).