Sat, Mar 2, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 27 | 110 | 14 | 421 |
| STL | 012 | 18 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:52DALJamie BennAssists: Taylor Fedun · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:44DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Blake Comeau, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 15:40STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 17:11DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 19:31DALJamie BennENAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:23DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:12DALBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:37DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P2 16:17STLMackenzie MacEachern: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00L'Esperance won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hintz – L'Esperance2:09
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Nichushkin5:38
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Hintz5:28
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark10:55
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fedun4:41
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Polak – Lindell16:43
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Heiskanen4:05
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Sundqvist – Sanford5:00
xG 0.20–0.00 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Bozak – Schwartz – Thomas5:46
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Blais3:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Sanford – Thomas5:08
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko17:50
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn3:11
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn2:59
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).