Sun, Mar 3, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 210 | 211 | 05 | 426 |
| NYI | 011 | 013 | 16 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:21PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Radko Gudas, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 14:59PHITravis SanheimGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 3:18PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–0
- P2 15:14PHISean CouturierAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–0
- P3 15:15NYIAdam PelechAssists: Andrew Ladd, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P3 1:41PHITravis Konecny: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:41PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:41NYIJordan Eberle: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:26PHIScott Laughton: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:44NYIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Hartman3:52
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Lindblom10:14
xG 0.94–0.79 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Knight – Varone – Hartman3:33
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier4:53
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Myers12:26
xG 1.06–0.90 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere2:15
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Hagg11:52
xG 0.57–0.84 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Ladd – Komarov8:51
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston6:53
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson11:21
xG 1.39–1.34 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier7:42
xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock18:15
xG 1.53–0.85 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews12:28
xG 0.77–0.55 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy17:20
xG 1.00–1.66 (38%)attempts 17–14goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).