Sun, Mar 3, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 0, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 08 | 05 | 019 |
| VGK | 016 | 322 | 010 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:42VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:21VGKRyan CarpenterAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 18:54VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 9:09VANAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:21VANNikolay Goldobin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Pearson – Goldobin – Pettersson10:28
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Motte8:14
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Leivo – Horvat – Boeser5:38
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Roussel – Spooner – Gaudette2:38
xG 0.02–0.37 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Biega18:14
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sautner11:17
xG 0.11–1.04 (9%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
- Hutton – Stecher23:39
xG 0.40–2.08 (16%)attempts 17–37goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carpenter – Bellemare8:17
xG 1.14–0.07 (94%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:06
xG 1.13–0.17 (87%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone13:59
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Pirri – Eakin – Tuch11:28
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:34
xG 1.71–0.19 (90%)attempts 26–7goals 2–0
- Merrill – Miller14:57
xG 1.08–0.24 (82%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Theodore2:27
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).