Sun, Mar 3, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 1, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 010 | 110 | 126 |
| ANA | 110 | 19 | 04 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Brendan Guhle · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 10:26ANACam FowlerPPGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 4:17COLDerick BrassardPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:24ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P1 7:04COLDerick Brassard: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:11ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:51ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:45COLGabriel Bourque: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52COLIan Cole: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:52COLIan Cole: Kneeing5 min
- P2 16:17COLPatrik Nemeth: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:17ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:17ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:06ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Brassard – Calvert2:42
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost2:29
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:12
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Calvert – Landeskog – Jost2:37
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Girard4:27
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov2:50
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nemeth2:48
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Roy10:05
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore5:13
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Henrique – Sprong – Terry5:04
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell3:09
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Guhle14:09
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm16:45
xG 1.09–0.83 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Holzer – Megna11:21
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).