Sun, Mar 3, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 18 | 38 | 526 |
| CBJ | 113 | 113 | 016 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21WPGSami NikuAssists: Ben Chiarot, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:22CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 0:35WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:31CBJSeth JonesAssists: Artemi Panarin, Zach Werenski · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 7:44WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 17:47WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Patrik Laine, Nathan Beaulieu · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:26WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:28CBJArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:52WPGTyler Myers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:41CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P1 15:26CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:33CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:33WPGDmitry Kulikov: Instigator2 min
- P2 7:33WPGDmitry Kulikov: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:33WPGDmitry Kulikov: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 19:50WPGConnor Hellebuyck: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 12:23WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Roslovic – Lindholm5:58
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine12:09
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 3–0
- Hayes – Ehlers – Connor10:02
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Little – Copp – Tanev8:44
xG 0.03–0.86 (3%)attempts 2–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Trouba14:37
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Myers – Chiarot2:29
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov10:09
xG 0.56–0.50 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Duchene4:00
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Duchene – Panarin2:07
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Foligno – Duchene – Bjorkstrand4:28
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Wennberg – Panarin3:27
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara15:39
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Harrington – Kukan9:41
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski16:17
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 21–15goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).