Sun, Mar 3, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 018 | 114 | 03 | 2 | 343 |
| MIN | 09 | 214 | 03 | 00 | 1 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21NSHNick BoninoAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 16:35MINEric FehrUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 19:22MINJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan Suter, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 15:41NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Kyle Turris, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Ryan Donato stopped
- 2. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 5. MIN Zach Parise scored
- 6. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 7. MIN Jason Zucker stopped
- 8. NSH Ryan Johansen scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:12NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:35NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:26MINPontus Aberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:34MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kunin won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Granlund8:44
xG 1.06–0.24 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson16:32
xG 0.96–0.93 (51%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Bonino – Simmonds – Grimaldi8:58
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Sissons – Gaudreau8:10
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:59
xG 1.40–0.55 (72%)attempts 25–17goals 0–1
- Weber – Irwin9:33
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm19:44
xG 0.79–1.21 (39%)attempts 20–21goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestAberg – Donato – Eriksson Ek4:19
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Greenway4:22
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Aberg – Greenway – Eriksson Ek6:04
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Parise – Fiala – Kunin13:24
xG 0.79–0.92 (46%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon22:37
xG 1.22–1.17 (51%)attempts 19–22goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Seeler9:36
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Brodin – Hunt15:41
xG 0.69–1.05 (40%)attempts 23–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).