Tue, Mar 5, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 110 | 115 | 01 | 337 |
| BOS | 012 | 215 | 19 | 12 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30CARSebastian AhoAssists: Calvin de Haan, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:10CARSebastian AhoAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 12:28BOSChris WagnerAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 18:12BOSJake DeBruskAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 2:45BOSPatrice BergeronSHAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 12:17CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:46BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:53BOSDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:53CARMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:02BOSJohn Moore: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:44CARJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:27BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:49BOSPeter Cehlarik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:50BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:43CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:14BOSPeter Cehlarik: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho12:52
xG 1.04–0.48 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- McKegg – McGinn – Wallmark2:13
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Ferland – Teravainen2:42
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Martinook2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – van Riemsdyk12:24
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Faulk – Pesce13:35
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Slavin14:53
xG 0.45–0.56 (44%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Coyle – Nordstrom2:06
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Backes – Coyle – Cehlarik4:00
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Acciari9:09
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk3:36
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Grzelcyk9:41
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo18:01
xG 0.81–0.62 (57%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy13:14
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).