Tue, Mar 5, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Ottawa Senators 4, New York Islanders 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 28 | 28 | 01 | 0 | 427 |
| NYI | 16 | 326 | 06 | 00 | 2 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.41 xG0–1
- P2 0:26OTTBrian GibbonsAssists: Thomas Chabot, Colin White · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:34NYIDevon ToewsAssists: Michael Dal Colle · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 5:45NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 6:32OTTOscar LindbergAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Anthony Duclair · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:02NYIRoss JohnstonAssists: Leo Komarov, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P3 7:38OTTZack SmithAssists: Bobby Ryan, Christian Wolanin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 15:20OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle scored
- 2. OTT Thomas Chabot stopped
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 4. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:37OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min
- P2 11:06OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:12OTTOscar Lindberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Smith – White4:09
xG 0.39–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Gibbons – Tierney – Balcers3:56
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Pageau – Tkachuk4:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Paajarvi – Tierney – Balcers5:19
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Chabot2:13
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Chabot18:31
xG 1.00–0.71 (58%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Ceci – Wolanin16:26
xG 0.42–0.73 (37%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Cizikas – Johnston8:03
xG 1.18–0.21 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson12:59
xG 1.19–0.63 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Dal Colle – Barzal – Beauvillier10:00
xG 0.90–0.43 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Filppula – Ladd – Eberle9:27
xG 0.00–0.29 (1%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews15:48
xG 1.76–0.59 (75%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock18:07
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy14:29
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).