Tue, Mar 5, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 113 | 011 | 01 | 234 |
| PIT | 010 | 212 | 013 | 12 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45FLAHenrik BorgstromPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:16PITJake GuentzelAssists: Jared McCann, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:01PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 17:31FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Mike Hoffman, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 2:44PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31PITErik Gudbranson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 9:22FLAJamie McGinn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:25FLAKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Barkov – Hawryluk – Borgstrom2:01
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano12:28
xG 0.55–0.69 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Hawryluk – Hunt – Borgstrom5:26
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:32
xG 0.52–0.78 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Weegar6:06
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Weegar11:17
xG 0.44–0.70 (38%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Brown5:30
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Bjugstad – Simon7:28
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – McCann14:09
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese14:23
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Cullen – Wilson – Blueger4:28
xG 0.01–0.05 (16%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pettersson13:27
xG 0.97–0.40 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Trotman12:46
xG 0.73–0.44 (63%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Johnson – Schultz17:21
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).