Tue, Mar 5, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 010 | 117 | 232 |
| TBL | 114 | 213 | 211 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Ondrej Palat, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 6:31WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 8:58TBLAdam ErneAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 14:26TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 4:20TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 9:50TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 15:03WPGJacob TroubaPPAssists: Connor Hellebuyck · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:05TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:14WPGBrandon Tanev: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03WPGAndrew Copp: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:10WPGJacob Trouba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:07WPGDmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:11TBLMathieu Joseph: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27WPGBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:27TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:27TBLCedric Paquette: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Copp – Tanev9:45
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Perreault – Roslovic – Lindholm7:10
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Hayes – Ehlers – Connor11:48
xG 0.47–0.76 (38%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine13:16
xG 0.12–0.75 (14%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Kulikov15:39
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Niku15:56
xG 0.30–0.70 (30%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Trouba13:47
xG 0.53–1.09 (33%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point9:47
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli11:04
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde11:10
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph8:28
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak14:57
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Girardi – Hedman14:03
xG 1.04–0.53 (66%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sergachev15:09
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).