Tue, Mar 5, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 0, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 09 | 08 | 028 |
| DAL | 011 | 110 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:16DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:50DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:55DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:55DALRadek Faksa: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:58NYRJimmy Vesey: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:47DALJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P3 10:07NYRMika Zibanejad: Boarding5 min
- P3 10:07NYRMika Zibanejad: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:24NYRBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:16NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:58NYRTony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58NYRBrady Skjei: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58NYRRyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:58NYRRyan Strome: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Kreider – Howden – Chytil8:21
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Namestnikov9:11
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Vesey – Buchnevich9:02
xG 0.06–0.32 (15%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHajek – Pionk9:00
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hajek2:02
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo8:53
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Faksa – Janmark7:29
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin2:32
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Hintz6:58
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Nichushkin – L'Esperance2:26
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Heiskanen11:53
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 19–1goals 1–0
- Polak – Lindell10:49
xG 0.42–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak3:26
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).