Wed, Mar 6, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 5, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 213 | 110 | 210 | 533 |
| ANA | 16 | 213 | 18 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28ANANick RitchieAssists: Troy Terry, Korbinian Holzer · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 8:03STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 15:55STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:53STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 15:39ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Troy Terry, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 17:51ANAJaycob MegnaAssists: Sam Steel, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 5:07ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Jaycob Megna, Troy Terry · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 18:56STLRobert ThomasAssists: Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–4
- P3 19:08STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:50ANAJaycob Megna: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:52ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:29STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:52STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:57ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:43STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24ANARyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:02STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:42ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bozak – Thomas11:08
xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Steen – Schwartz – Sundqvist11:39
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko12:48
xG 0.67–0.58 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais6:07
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Dunn12:28
xG 0.99–0.33 (75%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko13:55
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko2:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Ritchie – Terry8:39
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Steel8:31
xG 0.51–0.44 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Roy10:05
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kesler – Rowney – Jones7:49
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Larsson13:45
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm15:00
xG 0.50–0.71 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Holzer – Megna11:31
xG 0.66–0.90 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).