Wed, Mar 6, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 014 | 19 | 011 | 134 |
| VGK | 19 | 014 | 115 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:34VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Mark Stone, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 11:54CGYTravis HamonicAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 9:30VGKDeryk EngellandGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:30CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:52CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:40CGYTravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:37VGKBrandon Pirri: Holding2 min
- P2 9:53VGKJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P2 17:51CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:51VGKPaul Stastny: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:41VGKColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:21VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk9:51
xG 0.67–0.23 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Backlund – Lindholm – Mangiapane6:29
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Hathaway – Ryan5:35
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik6:45
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie2:26
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Brodie – Prout10:21
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson12:30
xG 0.10–0.33 (24%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Eakin – Tuch8:54
xG 0.76–0.22 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone10:29
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:25
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carpenter – Bellemare6:25
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:00
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller13:32
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt9:41
xG 0.23–0.61 (28%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).