Thu, Mar 7, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 3, Boston Bruins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 27 | 18 | 325 |
| BOS | 09 | 15 | 314 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:48FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 6:27FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 10:29BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Danton Heinen, David Backes · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 8:50BOSPatrice BergeronSHAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 10:55FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:23BOSMatt GrzelcykPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 19:53BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:26BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:02FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:21BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:37FLADryden Hunt: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:43BOSChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:06FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:09BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P3 17:24FLAMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Hawryluk – Borgstrom5:51
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov9:45
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hunt8:35
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano12:04
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Weegar14:59
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Brown9:18
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Matheson – Ekblad16:02
xG 0.35–0.66 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Coyle – Nordstrom2:01
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari5:12
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Coyle – Cehlarik2:05
xG 0.02–0.02 (56%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Coyle2:57
xG 0.02–0.07 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo2:19
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo10:17
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:44
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).