Thu, Mar 7, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 312 | 18 | 05 | 1 | 439 |
| CHI | 216 | 012 | 210 | 07 | 3 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 18:26CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Dominik Kahun, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 3:16BUFVladimir SobotkaAssists: Tage Thompson, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 4:39BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Scott Wilson, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 6:45BUFZach BogosianSHAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 4:48CHIArtem AnisimovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 7:20BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 7:57CHIBrendan PerliniAssists: Jonathan Toews, Slater Koekkoek · Snap, 0.19 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 4. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 5. CHI Alex DeBrincat scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:37BUFCasey Nelson: Holding2 min
- P1 13:43BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:30CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:19BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:40CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:48BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:15BUFBrandon Montour: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Sheary – Rodrigues10:09
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Pominville – Wilson – Mittelstadt6:52
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:02
xG 0.73–0.86 (46%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Girgensons – Thompson5:48
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Montour14:16
xG 0.93–0.83 (53%)attempts 23–11goals 2–2
- Nelson – Dahlin12:01
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Montour – Dahlin2:06
xG 0.01–0.07 (8%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPerlini – Strome – DeBrincat8:08
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Toews – Kane – Saad3:08
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Kampf9:37
xG 0.32–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Kahun8:36
xG 0.57–0.67 (46%)attempts 6–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Dahlstrom16:57
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook10:02
xG 0.79–0.71 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Seabrook – Koekkoek3:14
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).