Thu, Mar 7, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 018 | 110 | 19 | 237 |
| EDM | 217 | 114 | 03 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:07EDMZack KassianAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 1:02EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 18:30VANJay BeagleAssists: Brock Boeser, Ashton Sautner · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 7:03VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:26VANDerrick Pouliot: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:53EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P2 5:50EDMAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28VANTroy Stecher: Holding2 min
- P3 4:53EDMOscar Klefbom: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:27EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:25VANAdam Gaudette: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Goldobin – Gaudette2:25
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson11:48
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Roussel – Granlund – Gaudette2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Goldobin4:23
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Sautner9:55
xG 0.74–0.33 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Edler – Stecher20:07
xG 1.26–0.89 (59%)attempts 32–18goals 1–1
- Biega – Pouliot13:46
xG 0.37–0.71 (34%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Cave – Currie6:57
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – Draisaitl13:08
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Rieder – Khaira7:06
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:19
xG 0.54–1.14 (32%)attempts 12–23goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom18:13
xG 0.88–0.63 (58%)attempts 23–18goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning9:05
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse14:49
xG 0.57–1.09 (34%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).