Fri, Mar 8, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 2, Florida Panthers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 29 | 011 | 227 |
| FLA | 37 | 29 | 113 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:51FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 18:31FLAMacKenzie WeegarGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 3:34FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 9:02MINJT BrownAssists: Jonas Brodin, Eric Fehr · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 17:40FLAMike MathesonAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.06 xG1–5
- P2 17:55MINMarcus FolignoAssists: JT Brown, Nick Seeler · Slap, 0.29 xG2–5
- P3 10:23FLAMike MathesonAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:21FLARiley Sheahan: Holding2 min
- P2 2:20MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:44MINEric Fehr: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:11FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:15MINNick Seeler: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:22FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:28FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:28MINNick Seeler: Embellishment2 min
- P3 18:55FLAJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:55MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Foligno – Brown9:52
xG 0.84–0.41 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Aberg – Fiala – Greenway7:09
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Zucker3:06
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Read – Fiala – Donato2:05
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Hunt13:29
xG 1.18–0.69 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:13
xG 0.81–1.04 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
- Pateryn – Brodin13:21
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 5–17goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sheahan – Hunt11:14
xG 0.66–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov8:51
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 15–3goals 4–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano11:20
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- McGinn – Hawryluk – Borgstrom7:44
xG 0.27–0.92 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Weegar3:00
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad15:25
xG 0.97–0.97 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Yandle – Weegar15:18
xG 0.81–0.88 (48%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).