Fri, Mar 8, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 0, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 010 | 05 | 025 |
| WSH | 111 | 013 | 212 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Michal Kempny, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 4:35WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 19:01WSHLars EllerENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.77 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:49WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:36NJDKurtis Gabriel: Charging2 min
- P1 11:48NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:58NJDNick Lappin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:18WSHJakub Vrana: Interference2 min
- P2 5:06WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:44WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min
- P3 0:30WSHJakub Vrana: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:23NJDKenny Agostino: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:44NJDKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:18WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Coleman – Noesen6:07
xG 0.75–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Agostino8:57
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Pietila – Gabriel – Quenneville4:31
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
- Lappin – Anderson – McLeod7:17
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Butcher12:34
xG 0.99–0.24 (81%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson9:18
xG 0.29–0.50 (36%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Santini – Yakovlev10:10
xG 0.16–0.57 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Connolly6:22
xG 0.53–0.11 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana7:38
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Burakovsky4:22
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:31
xG 0.16–0.74 (18%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Jensen8:11
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen3:35
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny8:10
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).