Fri, Mar 8, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 2, Anaheim Ducks 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 113 | 012 | 237 |
| ANA | 29 | 312 | 38 | 829 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39ANADaniel SprongAssists: Jacob Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 17:17ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry, Nick Ritchie · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 17:47MTLPaul ByronAssists: Andrew Shaw, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 3:01ANADevin ShorePPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Nick Ritchie · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 10:51MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 11:53ANATroy TerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Jacob Larsson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 17:50ANACorey PerryAssists: Carter Rowney, Derek Grant · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 14:06ANARickard RakellAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Devin Shore · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–6
- P3 15:45ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–7
- P3 19:49ANAMax JonesAssists: Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:16ANANick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P1 14:04ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:24MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:46MTLJordie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:54ANADaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:08ANAJaycob Megna: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:38ANAJaycob Megna: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:36ANAMax Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:15MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:38
xG 1.10–0.48 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
- Byron – Shaw – Domi11:08
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Thompson – Weise – Armia9:18
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin8:37
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Folin11:19
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 19–10goals 0–3
- Petry – Reilly15:23
xG 0.64–0.58 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete12:41
xG 0.60–0.72 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 1–3
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Grant – Rowney8:20
xG 0.60–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore7:12
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Terry10:00
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Sprong – Jones8:42
xG 0.25–0.66 (27%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm13:08
xG 0.76–0.63 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 3–0
- Fowler – Larsson16:36
xG 0.78–1.00 (44%)attempts 15–20goals 3–1
- Holzer – Megna11:45
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).