Sat, Mar 9, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 0, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 03 | 011 | 018 |
| COL | 012 | 114 | 217 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:14COLNathan MacKinnonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 10:13COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 18:50COLGabriel BourqueENAssists: Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:12COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:12COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:12BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:23BUFSam Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:48BUFJack Eichel: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 8:19COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:19BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:26BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Larsson – Mittelstadt6:45
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Wilson – Girgensons7:30
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:39
xG 0.29–0.70 (29%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Okposo – Sheary – Rodrigues12:07
xG 0.15–0.96 (13%)attempts 3–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Montour16:31
xG 0.30–0.60 (33%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
- Scandella – Nelson9:35
xG 0.08–0.54 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin15:27
xG 0.32–0.89 (26%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Kerfoot – Jost9:01
xG 0.88–0.02 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Compher – MacKinnon12:16
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Rantanen11:37
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Bourque – Agozzino – Andrighetto5:03
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov12:20
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard13:29
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Barrie – Zadorov3:48
xG 0.29–0.03 (89%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).