Sat, Mar 9, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 19 | 18 | 224 |
| TBL | 27 | 014 | 112 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Erik Cernak, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:56TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 19:56DETThomas VanekPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Filip Zadina · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 13:53TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:04DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:28DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:10TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:32TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P1 19:52TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:52DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:33DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P2 9:51TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:07TBLMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:58TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:09DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Athanasiou won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestde la Rose – Ehn – Rasmussen7:11
xG 0.16–0.10 (60%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Glendening8:36
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Mantha8:05
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Nielsen – Vanek – Zadina7:23
xG 0.09–0.62 (13%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Daley2:51
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Hronek2:12
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek12:25
xG 0.10–0.37 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point12:47
xG 0.44–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli6:02
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Callahan – Gourde – Paquette7:04
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Miller9:10
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Rutta8:07
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:39
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev15:21
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).