Sat, Mar 9, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 210 | 35 | 010 | 525 |
| NYI | 16 | 013 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:20PHIRyan HartmanAssists: Ivan Provorov, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:56PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 1:34PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 5:35PHINolan PatrickAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P2 17:26PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 16:28NYINick LeddyAssists: Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.23 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:12NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:02PHIRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:41PHIJakub Voracek: Interference5 min
- P3 5:41NYIJosh Bailey: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:55NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:55NYIScott Mayfield: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:56NYILeo Komarov: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:56PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom6:29
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Patrick5:59
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Konecny6:43
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Knight – Varone – Hartman5:59
xG 0.03–0.10 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov11:07
xG 0.95–0.49 (66%)attempts 11–14goals 4–0
- Gudas – Hagg10:57
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Myers10:56
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson3:16
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson4:43
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Dal Colle – Barzal – Beauvillier8:22
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas7:59
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock10:13
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Leddy – Mayfield9:43
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Toews10:54
xG 0.09–0.70 (12%)attempts 7–11goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).