Sat, Mar 9, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 19 | 011 | 129 |
| CBJ | 111 | 19 | 213 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31CBJBoone JennerAssists: Josh Anderson, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 2:17CBJCam AtkinsonSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:39PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 16:59CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 18:11CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Zach Werenski, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.46 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:20CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:20PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:20CBJAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:35CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P1 13:14PITZachary Aston-Reese: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:14PITNick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:47CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:36PITJake Guentzel: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00PITJared McCann: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese10:16
xG 0.41–0.21 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Blueger6:23
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – McCann6:59
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon11:50
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pettersson13:27
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin2:34
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Johnson – Schultz13:14
xG 0.37–0.39 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Anderson12:16
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois11:55
xG 0.60–0.24 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Duchene – Dzingel – Bjorkstrand9:47
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Wennberg3:04
xG 0.03–0.17 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara14:53
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski18:49
xG 0.85–0.85 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Harrington8:28
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).