Sat, Mar 9, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Nashville Predators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 216 | 08 | 38 | 532 |
| NSH | 08 | 113 | 213 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29CARNino NiederreiterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:29CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 2:52NSHCraig SmithAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 0:55CARJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 2:35NSHBrian BoyleAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 6:38CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Brett Pesce, Lucas Wallmark · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 17:32NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:40CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:30NSHCraig Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 3:52NSHMatt Irwin: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:17NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:06CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:14CARLucas Wallmark: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:31NSHFrederick Gaudreau: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:50NSHP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov9:47
xG 0.11–0.28 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark11:50
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Aho11:16
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele6:09
xG 0.02–0.70 (3%)attempts 2–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk11:53
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin14:32
xG 0.17–0.44 (27%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Faulk – Pesce14:36
xG 0.36–1.31 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Turris – Gaudreau6:47
xG 0.86–0.09 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Bonino – Simmonds – Grimaldi8:01
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Sissons6:32
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Johansen – Granlund – Arvidsson10:55
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin6:57
xG 0.62–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis15:28
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:29
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).