Sat, Mar 9, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 516 | 18 | 09 | 633 |
| VAN | 110 | 112 | 09 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32VGKMark StoneAssists: Paul Stastny, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 5:03VGKAlex TuchAssists: Jon Merrill · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 8:33VGKCody EakinGWGAssists: Tomas Nosek, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–0
- P1 10:58VANBrock BoeserAssists: Alex Biega, Elias Pettersson · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P1 11:52VGKTomas NosekAssists: Colin Miller, Alex Tuch · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–1
- P1 14:17VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Colin Miller, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–1
- P2 3:56VANBo HorvatAssists: Antoine Roussel, Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P2 4:56VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 16:05VANLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:27VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:25VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Nosek – Tuch9:34
xG 1.07–0.34 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone11:39
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:27
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Bellemare11:39
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller17:52
xG 1.60–0.13 (93%)attempts 20–5goals 4–0
- McNabb – Theodore16:00
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Engelland – Schmidt15:44
xG 0.60–0.81 (42%)attempts 12–25goals 2–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – Horvat4:37
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pearson – Virtanen – Gaudette3:23
xG 0.06–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Beagle – Motte – Goldobin2:23
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Roussel – Horvat – Virtanen4:25
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Stecher11:12
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Edler – Biega12:28
xG 0.23–0.29 (45%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Biega – Pouliot7:40
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).