Sun, Mar 10, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 1, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 99% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 03 | 18 | 09 | 120 |
| FLA | 215 | 113 | 315 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42FLAJoshua BrownAssists: Troy Brouwer, Mark Pysyk · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:22FLAJamie McGinnPPGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Henrik Borgstrom · Backhand, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 8:26FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 12:24DETThomas VanekPPAssists: Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 1:26FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.29 xG1–4
- P3 2:51FLADryden HuntAssists: Riley Sheahan, MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 7:44FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.09 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:09DETMadison Bowey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:57DETAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:49FLAJayce Hawryluk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:40FLADryden Hunt: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 19:53DETFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:33DETThomas Vanek: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Athanasiou
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Bertuzzi – Mantha13:40
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- de la Rose – Ehn – Rasmussen6:03
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Abdelkader – Helm – Glendening10:07
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Zadina11:43
xG 0.07–1.94 (3%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- DeKeyser – Hronek15:10
xG 0.23–0.79 (23%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Bowey14:59
xG 0.11–0.83 (12%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Daley – Ericsson15:47
xG 0.42–1.95 (18%)attempts 10–22goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Trocheck – Vatrano10:58
xG 1.61–0.06 (97%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hunt10:03
xG 1.38–0.23 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:38
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- McGinn – Hawryluk – Borgstrom8:49
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Weegar16:59
xG 2.59–0.20 (93%)attempts 26–12goals 2–0
- Matheson – Ekblad15:54
xG 1.24–0.40 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Brown11:44
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 99% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).