Sun, Mar 10, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 310 | 09 | 06 | 325 |
| ANA | 12 | 08 | 110 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22LAKDustin BrownAssists: Derek Forbort, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 7:27ANADaniel SprongAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 10:37LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Trevor Lewis, Paul LaDue · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 16:25LAKCarl GrundstromGWGAssists: Adrian Kempe, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 12:16ANAJakob SilfverbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:30ANAHampus Lindholm: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:32ANADaniel Sprong: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:23ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:54LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:29ANARickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:29LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kempe – Grundstrom10:05
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford8:29
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:01
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort17:59
xG 0.76–0.46 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – LaDue10:47
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Martinez – Roy12:57
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Silfverberg – Shore2:19
xG 0.29–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Henrique – Rowney – Jones3:56
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Shore – Ritchie2:32
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Terry8:45
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:15
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Holzer – Megna11:09
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 1–3
- Fowler – Larsson19:20
xG 0.31–0.72 (30%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).