Mon, Mar 11, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 05 | 111 | 222 |
| PHI | 010 | 315 | 011 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:48OTTChris TierneyAssists: Ben Harpur, Rudolfs Balcers · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:02PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:02PHIMichael RafflAssists: Nolan Patrick · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:23PHIScott LaughtonGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 17:03OTTFilip ChlapikAssists: Zack Smith, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 9:26PHIRyan Hartman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P2 16:13OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:19PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 2:56OTTFilip Chlapik: Interference2 min
- P3 17:59OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Chlapik
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Duclair – Balcers2:07
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Chlapik3:18
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Ryan – Pageau – Tkachuk3:53
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – Chlapik5:48
xG 0.07–0.37 (15%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Harpur5:16
xG 0.28–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–1goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:14
xG 0.11–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot2:27
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Lindblom13:34
xG 1.23–0.15 (89%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Knight – Varone – Raffl2:29
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Hartman2:38
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Raffl – Patrick2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Hagg11:18
xG 0.71–0.08 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Provorov15:57
xG 1.15–0.62 (65%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Myers9:31
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).