Tue, Mar 12, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Boston Bruins 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 14 | 313 | 014 | 431 |
| CBJ | 313 | 215 | 27 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00BOSPatrice BergeronSHAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:19CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Zach Werenski, Ryan Dzingel · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 14:18CBJRyan DzingelAssists: Zach Werenski, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 19:54CBJBoone JennerSHAssists: Josh Anderson · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 7:09CBJMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 8:09CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Riley Nash, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.35 xG1–5
- P2 13:07BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Backes · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–5
- P2 15:36BOSChris WagnerAssists: Danton Heinen · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–5
- P2 18:37BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 12:21CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–6
- P3 19:13CBJBoone JennerENAssists: Riley Nash, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:29BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P1 17:34CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:56CBJNick Foligno: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 13:21BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:21BOSCharlie McAvoy: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:21CBJArtemi Panarin: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:43BOSSteven Kampfer: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:08CBJArtemi Panarin: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:49BOSDanton Heinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Marchand5:22
xG 0.62–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Krejci – Coyle – Heinen5:10
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Frederic3:03
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Krejci – Coyle – Cehlarik6:09
xG 0.03–0.36 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Krug4:10
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Krug – McAvoy3:03
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Moore – Carlo7:07
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois10:49
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nash – Jenner11:45
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg4:51
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Dzingel – Anderson8:46
xG 1.02–0.90 (53%)attempts 10–15goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski14:29
xG 1.49–0.38 (80%)attempts 21–11goals 3–0
- McQuaid – Harrington11:09
xG 0.57–0.68 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Savard – Nutivaara18:20
xG 0.83–0.98 (46%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).