Tue, Mar 12, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 07 | 18 | 121 |
| MTL | 013 | 210 | 113 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:27MTLMax DomiAssists: Andrew Shaw, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 17:32MTLBrett KulakGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 0:40DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:11MTLMax DomiENAssists: Jordan Weal, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:09DETJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:26MTLTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 5:56MTLJordie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58DETFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Bertuzzi3:50
xG 0.45–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou3:44
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Rasmussen2:03
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Zadina5:47
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWitkowski – DeKeyser5:46
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Witkowski3:18
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Hronek4:15
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:59
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Shaw – Drouin – Domi4:09
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Byron – Shaw – Domi8:20
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi7:16
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Benn2:06
xG 0.58–0.10 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete15:28
xG 0.92–0.51 (64%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Folin13:56
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 26–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).