Tue, Mar 12, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 5, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 212 | 113 | 211 | 536 |
| WPG | 210 | 111 | 14 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:05SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Joe Thornton, Marcus Sorensen · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 8:37WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Ben Chiarot, Mathieu Perreault · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 9:10WPGBryan LittleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 16:04SJSGustav NyquistAssists: Tomas Hertl, Joonas Donskoi · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 0:45WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 10:33SJSGustav NyquistAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 2:00SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Joe Thornton, Kevin Labanc · Snap, 0.31 xG4–3
- P3 16:22WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Tyler Myers, Brandon Tanev · Deflected, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 19:55SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.23 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:59SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:48WPGBryan Little: Holding2 min
- P3 4:20SJSGustav Nyquist: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:44WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Couture – Meier14:46
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:41
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Nyquist – Donskoi – Hertl9:59
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Haley – Goodrow – Karlsson6:53
xG 0.03–0.23 (11%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon10:13
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Burns – Heed4:37
xG 0.50–0.25 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Heed4:45
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Laine11:39
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Perreault – Copp – Roslovic7:52
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Little – Lowry – Tanev9:46
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Hayes – Ehlers – Connor10:25
xG 0.37–1.11 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Trouba2:55
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Niku11:10
xG 0.25–0.54 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Beaulieu – Trouba14:16
xG 0.64–1.12 (36%)attempts 16–16goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).