Tue, Mar 12, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 4, Calgary Flames 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 28 | 212 | 06 | 426 |
| CGY | 111 | 211 | 617 | 939 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:03NJDBlake ColemanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 18:18NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 0:54NJDKenny AgostinoAssists: Will Butcher, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 7:17CGYSam BennettAssists: Mark Giordano, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 10:13CGYElias LindholmAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P2 17:49NJDTravis ZajacSHAssists: Blake Coleman, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 0:41CGYDerek RyanAssists: Sam Bennett, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 1:01CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–5
- P3 2:37CGYDerek RyanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–6
- P3 12:01CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–7
- P3 18:41CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–8
- P3 18:57CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Oscar Fantenberg, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–9
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:30CGYTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P2 17:09NJDStefan Noesen: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:01NJDDamon Severson: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 6:21CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Tangradi – Anderson – McLeod8:09
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Zajac – Palmieri – Coleman12:50
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 5–14goals 1–3
- Pietila – Noesen – Lappin12:23
xG 0.29–0.73 (29%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
- Stafford – Agostino – Rooney13:37
xG 0.41–1.15 (26%)attempts 9–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSantini – Yakovlev16:37
xG 1.15–0.94 (55%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
- Carrick – Butcher16:40
xG 0.65–0.70 (48%)attempts 17–16goals 1–3
- Greene – Severson15:15
xG 0.23–1.29 (15%)attempts 8–20goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:04
xG 1.15–0.19 (86%)attempts 14–8goals 4–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik6:23
xG 0.37–0.06 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bennett – Czarnik – Ryan5:24
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan6:30
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin17:17
xG 1.51–0.69 (69%)attempts 29–14goals 4–0
- Andersson – Fantenberg14:07
xG 1.14–0.37 (76%)attempts 17–10goals 3–1
- Giordano – Brodie16:17
xG 0.40–0.85 (32%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).